Start point: Speak to General Bentnoze or General Wartface in Goblin Village.
Official difficulty: Novice
Description: There’s a disturbance in the Goblin Village. Help the goblins solve their dispute so the world doesn’t have to worry about rioting goblins. Aim: to help the goblins decide which colour they will wear.
Official length: Very Short (?)
Items required:
- Green armor at hand
- Red armor at hand
- Lots of patience
Enemies to defeat: Wassies.
In the past weeks, there have been lots of goblin talks on Crypto Twitter — even some on Tradfi Twitter.
As markets and wassies are starting to return from their holiday vacations I decided to write this small outlook of markets.
Before we start I would like to say I really suggest more people do it.
I only do this because in the current boring market it seems like it’s easy to get lost, go off track and do stupid stuff you normally wouldn't do.
Writing my opinion and plan helps me stay in line and make sure I don’t stick to some bias I have from before just because I’m lazy or sick of this ranging pain.
Enjoy.
Bitcoin
Monthly timeframe:
On the higher timeframes, Bitcoin looks dull.
We have bounced from to support and now approaching resistance, mVP breakout failed miserably and is now back to pmPOC right above to pmVAL.
We are ranging and one shouldn’t take long-term directional bets in my opinion until we either go below the last few months' VAL at around 37k or break the VAH again around 42–43k.
Now that we had a failed breakout, if we have another breakout I personally will feel much better longing into that event, failed breakouts don’t tend to be followed by another failure.
From a candlestick perspective it’s again, just a range between 36k to 60k with a midpoint at 47k.
Weekly timeframe:
I have reduced cluttering and noise by leaving the levels on which I personally will take action on.
We pretty much have the same levels from the monthly timeframe with the addition of the 43k level to break which will be my ‘look for longs into strength’ setup and one more thing which is the red line — 2021–2022 range POC.
Like it or not, Bitcoin has been ranging for a year and a half now.
The POC of all this PA is sitting at 38.8k, which is the price we are currently at.
If this level will be flipped into resistance I think it is more likely than not that we will break below pmVAL, question is for how long and how low.
If bulls manage to keep it and reclaim 43k (or at the very least 40k) we might see it trying to go for the midrange again.
Daily timeframe: (3D to reduce noise)
The daily chart is what I use for intraday swing setups.
I don’t take spot trades and weekly/monthly trades off of it.
Looking at the 3-day chart, it is clear to see we are at a level to level environment, perfect ranging market — from range to range. There is no clear trend here thus far.
Bitcoin chart is getting into support and coming into the bigger range POC but I don’t take any long setups here for a few reasons:
- Bitcoin is weak. It is clear and was explained in my previous article.
- Higher timeframes are bearish until proven otherwise.
- Ethereum and global markets (ES, NQ) look bad.
I much prefer to buy with confidence, higher, into strength, rather than take on risk in a clear risk-off environment.
Ethereum
Monthly timeframe:
From support to resistance.
Not much to add.
Bitcoin beta.
Weekly timeframe:
Last level of support for me was 3k.
I personally believe that if Bitcoin won’t get some strength at the upcoming levels we can see Ethereum trading as low as 2.2k or lower.
I don’t see a reason to bid into thin air between 3k and 2.2k.
Just trade the Bitcoin chart and execute on Ethereum, honestly.
Daily timeframe:
The daily chart of Ethereum looks grim, too.
Failed to breakout of the range and even made a bearish retest of range high.
The only setups I have (besides specific strategies) are buy range low or buy another attempted breakout.
ETH/BTC:
To be quite honest, it is an amazing chart.
Looking at it for a few weeks now I realized the smartest move will be to go almost all into Ethereum the moment Bitcoin looks good enough.
Not quite sure how I will do it or if I even will. But yeah this looks strong.
Bitcoin is the boss, indeed. But with this massive range we had between 2021 and 2022, Ethereum against Bitcoin managed to form higher lows, keep them, and continue making higher highs.
Bitcoin maxi, Ripple maxi, or Tezos maxi. Like it or not, this is a very bullish chart.
TLDR;
- Bitcoin looks weak but is sitting on support and big POC.
Can buy now and cut if we lose range low, or wait into strength and reclaim of 40k at the very least. - Ethereum looks weak following Bitcoin's weakness but looks strong on a relative basis. Being a beta (leverage) of Bitcoin and taking the fact it looks good against Bitcoin, one can simply chart Bitcoin and execute on Ethereum.
Bear market — good for goblins?
I don’t know about you guys, but during the bull market, I was tired. So tired.
Sleepless nights trying to not miss a thing, constant awareness, and hours of screentime- just trying not to miss a single alert.
I am happy now things are calmer and I can leave the screens for a day or two knowing I will come back and probably (with Bitcoin ranging) even prices will be the same too.
As markets change, you should be able to adapt. I think in the current market which is less forgiving, it is better to take fewer setups, with less risk, but try and aim for higher conviction and general quality of setups.
Why waste energy now if you can wait for the easy, forgiving market?
Bitcoin pumped 250$? 1000$? No worries, it is now down only 42% and not 43% from its all-time highs.
Trust me, for most of you, it’s not worth it.
It is better to spend time on developing yourself as a trader, gain more knowledge, enjoy life a bit more than usual.
Cobie once said on UpOnly that most wealth is done in bull markets by those who were patient until the depths of the bear market.
How do you know it’s the depths of the bear market? I don’t know how to answer that. But just try to position yourself in a way that when that bottom comes, you won’t have to make bad decisions out of desperation. Where people make these, that’s usually the bottom btw.
Do you think it mattered if in early 2019 you bought at 3k or 3.5k? “Yes! Of course! It means you have fewer coins”. But when you look back and see how many got rinsed by markets on their way from 6k to 3k, you realize that timing, not price, matters more. Especially if you are an investor/swing trader.
In bear markets, you have the time to properly think and grow, build the basis of your thesis for the next run, analyze the last bull market, what you did wrong, what you did right, etc.
Survival is your top priority. Period.
Whenever the next bull run starts, make sure you're there and that you survive whatever happens until then.
